Forex Morning Update

Morning Update

The euro is starting to lose a bit of its oomph after a stellar run during the Asian session. It seems like fears that the IMF won’t extend the next tranche of bailout funds to Greece have been put to bed for now, possibly until 29th June when the IMF’s audit on Athens is due to be released.
Soothing words from ECB officials helped the euro to recover after dipping to as low as 1.4070 yesterday, before reaching a high of 1.4280 as investors felt more comfortable to hold risk and ditch the dollar as the Greece/ IMF saga died down a bit. However, this morning the dollar has clawed back some of its overnight losses after some weaker than expected European data.
Europe’s economic sentiment data for May was weaker than expected, this is the third straight month of disappointing confidence data adding to evidence that the Euro-area economy is on course for a slowdown as the currency bloc embarks on a period of belt-tightening. However, growth is likely to remain fairly healthy even if it does moderate from here and it is likely that the latest flare up in Greek sovereign fears may have also dented confidence along with the April rate rise. This caused some weakness in the euro, and EURUSD is currently hovering around the 1.4200 mark.
In recent weeks the euro has come under pressure as we near the end of the European session on a Friday as investors cut their long positions prior to the weekend. If this continues today then we may see further weakness in the euro, which may also weigh on other risky assets. After all, concerns about Greece and a potential default as early as next month remain at the forefront of investors’ minds and this is affecting behaviour and making traders want to take profits rather than hold open positions over the weekend.
The sharp appreciation in the Swiss franc this week also suggests that investors remain afraid and want to hold a safe haven asset as part of their portfolio. On a broad basis the Swissie has appreciated by 2.5 per cent this week and reached record highs versus the euro and sterling.
After a strong reading of the KOF this month, a leading economic indicator, this is likely to keep upward pressure on the Swissie.
Not only is the franc benefitting from the uncertainty in the markets but also strong economic data is putting upward pressure on the SNB to hike interest rates. Swiss 2-year bond yields have plateaued after a steep fall, however the spread with German 2-year yields has narrowed as Berlin’s bonds attract safe haven flows amidst the sovereign debt crisis. This is boosting the Swissie.
Elsewhere, stocks are higher today but have followed the euro lower in the latter part of the European session. The end of the G8 meeting in France passed without incident and the communiqué didn’t say anything specific about the Eurozone debt crisis or particular currencies. It did mention that the economic recovery was self-sustaining but that higher global commodity prices were a problem. It also included a statement about economic imbalances “we remain focused on the action required to enhance the sustainability of public finances, to strengthen the recovery and foster employment.” So deficit reduction is still on the menu even if growth moderates from here.
Oil is under pressure, but remains at a fairly high level, while gold is also higher, possibly as a result of on-going pressures in Europe’s periphery.
Watch out for any comments from EU officials / the IMF about Greece. But after a torrent of comments yesterday, with officials often talking at odds to each other, things may stay quiet today. US core PCE (the inflation measure looked at by the Fed) is released later along with the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence rate for May, which is expected to remain stable at 72.4.

Data watch:

G8 Meeting Final day
ASEAN Ministerial Meeting Final day
EU German Laende CPI data
13.30BST (0830 ET) US Personal Income Last 0.5 Exp 0.4
13.30BST (0830 ET) US Personal Spending Last 0.6 Exp 0.5
13.30BST (0830 ET) US PCE Last 0.4 M/M 1.8 Y/Y Exp 0.4 M/M 2.3 Y/Y
13.30BST (0830 ET) US Core PCE Last 0.1 M/M 0.9 Y/Y Exp 0.2 M/M 1.1 Y/Y
14.00BST (0900 ET) EU Schauble speaking on Stable financial policy
14.55BST (0955 ET) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Last 72.4 Exp 72.5
15.00BST (1000 ET) US Pending Home sales Last 5.1 Exp -1.0
15.00BST (1000 ET) MX Mexican rate announcement Last 4.5 Exp 4.5

Source : http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/forex-morning-update/2011/05/27/03/